The Next Game Changer

The last two hundred years of human history have been mind-boggling. The advances made in all fields of human endeavor over the last two centuries have been so incredible and life is so starkly different that an outside observer could easily mistake history before and after the 18th century on Earth as if it could have happened on two entirely different planets.

There are several reasons for that, with the primary reason being, of course, the Industrial Revolution. There is no possible way the impact of the Industrial Revolution on the average human being can be understated. 

Two hundred plus years ago the Industrial Revolution and the Age of Enlightenment overlapped and were concurrent with the continued exploration, and settlement of the Americas. Modern economic theory was developing and Capitalism was born. 

Suddenly, everything and anything became eligible for investigation, scrutiny, examination. The various religions and the aristocracy lost their grip on thought and ideas of what could be just seemed to explode from the minds of great thinkers.

But the big game changer was Energy. Cheap, affordable energy. Prior to the 18th century, energy was primarily manual or animal, with minor harnessing of the wind and water. Coal had been used in China for at least a thousand years before it came to be used in areas of Europe, but it was on a very small scale. World wide, prior to the 18th century, the major source of fuel for fire was the burning of wood. 

Then something changed. The use of steam and electricity, produced by the burning of coal and the harnessing of water power, was developed and led to thousands of new ways to travel, get things done, communicate, and build.

Which eventually led to the development of the computer, and then the creation of the Internet, which I believe is the biggest game changer since the Industrial Revolution.

There should be statues of Donald Davies, Leonard Kleinrock, and Douglas Englebart in every city on the globe. 

Unfortunately, the Industrial Revolution also led to new and far more horrific ways for us humans to destroy each other, but that's for another post. 

This particular post is about what could possibly be next. As I believe the Internet is one of the greatest developments for the good of the human species since domesticating animals, and as I understand the Internet to be immensely powerful, I wonder what it is going to lead to.

What is going to be the next big advance in the evolution of the human species? What is going to be the next big game changer?

I've sent emails to a few friends asking what they think will be the next big thing and I've received some compelling responses. 

Brian H. in Pennsylvania suggested that stem-cell technology and other advances in medical science will double the average human life span, which will lead to vast changes in society as we learn to deal with the changes that it will bring to the workplace, family structure, politics, wealth management, etc.

Rob M. in Florida thinks it will be the continuing growth of agnosticism and atheism. Rob states that eventually people who have no religious beliefs will be the dominate demographic in a generation or two.

John R. in Alaska posited Quantum computing. I had no idea what quantum computing was so I had to do a bit of research - the possibilities are truly amazing. If quantum computing does come about, it will truly be a game changer.

Vicky R. here in Denver believes that social networking is already the next big game changer. She thinks that eventually, every single human on the planet will have an online presence, and we will all be connected somehow - a digital six-degrees of separation.

When I initially started thinking about this topic I had a few ideas that seemed fairly probable. Life extension via some type of induced hibernation, male contraception, a death ray that leaves a pile of carbon ala Star Trek, a chemical means of boosting intelligence or maybe some type of chip implant that makes learning anything as easy as downloading a program.

However, after a bit of pondering as to what made the Industrial Revolution possible it occurred to me that what  was going to be the next big game changer was probably not going to be an invention or development, it was in all probability going to be the very opposite of what made the Industrial Revolution possible.  

The end of cheap energy.

Cheap energy is what makes life as we know it today possible. I pay about $125.00 a month to stay warm or cool down, store and cook my food, watch my satellite feed and netflicks connected HD TV, use my computer, recharge my phone, listen to music, etc., etc.

So what happens when energy is no longer cheap? What happens after the last drop of oil is pulled from the Earth? What happens when the last chunk of coal is mined? It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when.

I imagine (and hope) that by that time mankind will have learned how to better harness the power of the sun, or the wind. Hydroelectric power will still be around, sure, but without coal, or gas, there will be some serious changes.

Will nuclear power be more welcome? Will Hydrogen power become common? 

The population of the planet before the industrial revolution has been estimated at 1 billion. Today it is over 7 billion. That's due to better farming techniques resulting in higher farm yields and those yields being distributed all over the world. and of course to advances in medical science made possible by the ease of sharing knowledge worldwide. We learn from each other on a global scale that is truly amazing.

Just 100 years ago the childhood mortality rate due to consumption of spoiled milk was staggering (Want to breed some microbial life? Use milk as your medium). Pasteurization is a relatively new process and household refrigeration did not become common until after WWII.

In the year 1900 the average lifespan was 47. Now it's 78. Just a little more than a century and we've added 31 years to the average persons life. 

Energy, cheap energy, has made that possible. What happens when the cheap energy runs out?

Well, population contraction is certainly probable. Without cheap energy it is going to be increasingly difficult to produce cheap food, and increasingly difficult to produce cheap medical care (yes, medical care, even in the U.S., is cheap. It just seems like it isn't because it saves your life and when you don't die and have to pay for your life extension it feels expensive). 

Cheap, readily available food and cheap, readily available medical care is what made 7 billion people possible.

So there you go. My idea of what will be the next big game changer. We will run out of cheap energy.