The Scary Part Of The Data

Looking at the data regarding reported cases of CoVid-19 and the resultant deaths can be a little worrying.

Especially when projections of fatalities being made for areas that haven't been hit really hard yet are based on areas that have been hit much harder.

Let's use for example the United States, a vast country (9,833,520 km2, or 3,796,747 sq mi) with an official  population of 328,239,523 (339 to 344 million if you count the 11 to 15 million number for illegal residents that gets bandied about in the immigration debate).

To date in the U.S. there have been 1,597,795 reported/confirmed CoVid-19 cases, with 94,629 deaths and 303,367 recoveries.

That's a Preliminary Case Fatality Rate of 5.92%. That's staggering.

However, it could get so much worse. Take a look at the numbers for the 10 hardest hit Western European countries:

United Kingdom: 250,908 cases, 36,042 fatalities, no data for recoveries. That's a 14.36% PCFR

Spain: 233,037 cases, 27,940 fatalities, 150,376 recoveries.
That's a PCFR of 11.99%

Italy: 228,006 cases, 32,486 fatalities, 134,560 recoveries,
PCFR equals 14.24%

Germany: 178,875 cases, 8,277 fatalities, 157,941 recoveries, Preliminary Case Fatality Rate of 4.62%

France: 144,163 cases, 28,215 fatalities, 63,858 recoveries, PCFR of 19.57%

Belgium: 58,235 cases, 9,186 fatalities, 14,988 recoveries, resultant PCFR is 15.77%

Netherlands: 44,700 cases, 5,775 fatalities, no data for recoveries, PCFR equals 12.91%

Sweden: 32,172 cases, 3,871 fatalities, 4,971 recoveries, for a Preliminary Case Fatality Rate of 12.03% 

Switzerland: 30,694 cases, 1,638 fatalities, 27,900 recoveries, PCFR equals 5.33%

Portugal: 29,912 cases, 1,277 fatalities, 6,452 recoveries, PCFR of 4.26%

Of those ten countries, only three (Germany, Switzerland, and Portugal) have PCFR's comparable to that of the U.S. but, due to the size of the United States it becomes necessary to add the totals of those ten countries for a more representational comparison.

The combined area of those ten Western European countries is 2,703,872 km2, (or 1,043,970 sq mi), with a combined official population of 316,640,882 (I have no idea what the illegal residents situation is in those ten countries, so I am not going to even begin to guess, but as anyone who has spent 15 minutes in any European country can attest, there are quite a few).

Even though there is a slight disparity in the land masses (7 million or so sq km2), the populations are fairly close - I could add a couple more countries such as Austria & Norway to eliminate the population disparity, but I've done too much math as it is.

For this is how it stands. To date those ten Western European countries have counted a combined 1,230,702 cases of Covid-19 with a combined 154,320 fatalities, resulting in a combined 12.53% Preliminary Case Fatality Rate.

The United States could easily reach that figure. It only takes a few people who think they are too special to have to wear a mask in public, or think the social distancing rules do not apply to them.

Don't be like that. You're not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else, and chances are you are susceptible to CoVid-19 just like everyone else.

So wear a mask, and abide by social distancing recommendations.